Where No Birds Sing

Governor Defers Budget Decisions,

Blames Volatility in World Markets

A widely used political metaphor is the canary in the mineshaft. The small yellow bird is said to be more sensitive to carbon monoxide and methane than human beings. Therefore, when poisonous gases accumulate in an enclosed underground area, the canary is reputedly the first creature to sense its toxic effects. This makes the bird a living smoke alarm, and signals miners and others to escape.

The canary warns of danger not by calls of alarm, but by their absence. Since canaries sing a great deal of the time, miners could read their silence as indicating that the birds were dead or dying, and that it was past time to flee. The concept of the canary in the mineshaft is used to describe a situation in which peril is perceived by a few, but is imminent for all.

The canary rule can be applied to financial situations, weather conditions, rising waters or other impending crises, physical or economic. The canary in the mineshaft provides an early warning of danger ahead. Theoretically, this avian warning information gives the authorities, or whoever has brought the canaries to the mine, the opportunity to take remedial action in an attempt to forestall the disaster that lies in wait if nothing is done.

Advance information is also a valuable asset in the business world. People have gone to jail for using it for their own benefit at the expense of others. The rules on this sometimes can be difficult to follow, although there are obvious cases where people (e.g. messengers or printers) have obtained information on the job about future transactions and used that knowledge for personal gain.

People who trade stocks and bonds make decisions based on their beliefs of what the market will do. Investment decisions should be made on the basis of the informed judgment of market professionals. It is logical that such judgments should be made, in part, on the basis of what other investors are doing. It is illegal, however, to be too well informed, and people can be prosecuted if they are caught at insider trading.

An opposite flaw in the dissemination of information is criticized in today's Post by E.J. McMahon. He observes that an important budget document is now more than ten days overdue. Every October 31 in New York State, the governor's Division of the Budget is supposed to issue a mid-year financial report, detailing the degree to which the state's real-world economic situation conforms to the projections laid out in the annual budget adopted by the legislature at the end of March.

In addition to tracking the state's actual tax revenues, which according to the comptroller's office are down by almost $400 million from the forecast numbers, the mid-year accounting is an important indicator of the "fiscal trends that will shape the next Executive Budget". It also provides a context to evaluate the budget requests made by each of the state agency heads, which were due this week.

Governor Cuomo explains his decision to delay the DOB's mid-year report, and, consequently, to postpone indefinitely the deadline for agency heads to submit their budget requests, as follows: "Between Greece and Europe and the stock market going up and down, there has been significant ... volatility. We want to make sure we have the best possible [projections], because we are going to start making real decisions based on this information."

The phrase "making real decisions" in government usually means firing people or shelving capital projects. Since the state has won major concessions from the unions in exchange for a no-layoff pledge, it will be more difficult to find areas in which expenditures can be substantially reduced.

Since it is unlikely that there will be a tide-turning economic recovery in the state in the next few months, the delay in submitting reports and budget requests will most likely mean that the reductions, when they come, will be sharper. This is a perennial situation; it recurs with monotonous and unsurprising regularity each budget cycle. The administration buys breathing room, but at a cost.

The next four and a half months will complete Fiscal Year 2011-2012. As the due date for the next budget approaches, the struggle to balance the budget, or to find a ruse to avoid a balanced budget, will intensify. Mandatory cost increases and a projected $2.4 billion budget gap will create an even more difficult situation for next year.

Some alleviation of the bad news may come from the fact that if the budget is so dire than reasonable people will not fault the governor for being unable to keep his commitments. However, Cuomo appears to be proud of his promises, and as a strong governor and potential national candidate, he is under closer scrutiny than some of his rivals.

We fear the silence of the canary. Muzzling or ignoring the bird may provide time to work on the problem, but it will not add any oxygen to the mineshaft.



StarQuest #784 11.10.2011 824 words

Herding Cats

Glory Be. Big Three Agree.

Foresee Albany Tranquility

The Post's front-page headline this morning, PIGS FLY, reflected the skepticism and cynicism that some New Yorkers feel at the report that the governor and legislative leaders had agreed on a state budget five days in advance of the April 1 deadline. The Times' headline was predictably more sedate: ALBANY STRIKES BUDGET ACCORD TO CUT SPENDING. The News' block head was HAMMER TIME, a catch phrase used by '80s rapper M.C. Hammer.

There was some wonderment at the timely bipartisan agreement, considering that the Senate is Republican and the Assembly Democratic. In fact, however, it would have been more difficult to reach agreement if both houses of the legislature had been controlled by the Democrats. In that eventuality, the party leaders would have no one to blame but themselves for their failure to submit entirely to the demands of the interest groups who contribute so handsomely to their campaigns. This way, they can blame the opposition party. Rule 18-X-6 applies here: "The Devil made me do it."

The state budget proceedings are generally fraught with misrepresentation by the participants. How can a ten billion dollar projected deficit disappear overnight without new taxes or new borrowing? The mayor and the governor are in direct conflict, as their predecessors have been for over fifty years or more. The worst battles were between two Republicans, Nelson Rockefeller and John Lindsay.

When one consults experts as to who is telling the truth with regard to financial claims, one is told that the two sets of numbers are both accurate, but are derived from different baselines, and therefore impossible to compare.

The possibility remains that the deal will fall apart over the next few days, as each party tries to derive maximum advantage under the frame of reference agreed upon. In that event, the high popularity of the governor in the polls, combined with the low regard shown for the legislature, should give Andrew Cuomo the upper hand over the refractory solons, a number of whom are ethically challenged.

Conventional wisdom has it that the outcome is ordained by the fact that the State Constitution gives the governor great power over the budget. Speaker Sheldon Silver and former Senate President Joseph Bruno tried to amend the State Constsitution in 2007 to give the legislature power over the governor on the state budget, but their plan was defeated at the polls.

Former Governor Paterson had the same authority that Governor Cuomo has now, but did not make the fullest use of it. There are critical theories as to why this was the case:

l. He was unaware that he had power over the budget.


2. He knew he had the power, but was indifferent to making the effort to use it.


3. He knew he had the power, and he wanted to use it, but did not know just how to do so.

4. He didn't want to upset any of the special interests in the Democratic Party, or be responsible for any budget reductions that would impact negatively any of his perceived communities and supporters.


5. He wanted to use it, but was so grateful to the legislature for not seeking to pursue him for various ethical misjudgments that he did not want to ruffle their feathers by a major disagreement over his authority.


6. Not being a friend and mentor of the Chief Judge, he feared the outcome of litigation over the issue.


7. No longer having available the services of Fr. Charles J. O'Byrne, his competent and trusted confidant, he feared that his case would not be adequately or professionally pursued.


8. He thought it might injure the Democratic Party to have a public quarrel of this nature with the Speaker.


9. Any combination of the first eight reasons.

In fact, Governor Paterson did affirmatively make use of his Constitutional authority in 2010. He acted after the April 1 budget deadline expired, by sending continuing resolutions to the legislature which included various budget reductions, some of which affected issues of public policy.

If the legislature failed to approve his resolutions, the government would have to shut down for lack of funds, causing some disruption to the public and in effect locking out state employees. Governor Paterson had success with this tactic, which Governor Cuomo is widely believed to be ready to use again to achieve the reductions and policy changes which he, and a majority of the public, generally believe to be desirable.

At this point, the close of his third month in office, Cuomo is off to a healthy start. "Day One: Everything Changes", the slogan of the Spitzer administration, is in the dustbin of history. By his third month, Spitzer was at war with the Senate and the Assembly. It was a war he was not destined to win.

With regard to Cuomo, so far the public likes what they have seen of him. He has handled himself well, speaking with both force and restraint. He was particularly good with regard to the strange intrusion by the Roman factotem into his private life, a 21st century reprise of a 16th century dispute between a pope and a king.

We don't have enormous confidence in the budget data that any politician offers, although by the laws of probability, some set of figures must be more accurate than others. It is said that the only true news in some papers is the obituaries, and the only true budget reductions come when people are separated from the payroll, or when prisons actually physically close. That has not yet come to pass, and we do not wish unemployment on anyone, especially in these difficult times. It is difficult, however, for ordinary people to figure out how it is that multi-billion dollar budget goals are proclaimed to have been achieved while personnel costs remain largely untouched and pension costs continue to rise.

Meanwhile, it is better to see both parties on good behavior than to watch them snipe. Governor Cuomo deserves credit for, at least temporarily, restoring good manners to the Capitol. We hope he stays calm. Remember, the governor proposes, the legislature appropriates, but the governor has the last crack at what the agencies spend. He cannot add to appropriations, but he can subtract, particularly in the event of financial emergency, which we have been told is the present exigency.

FYI, the California state budget deficit this year is estimated at $25.4 billion. We are not alone.

BTW: Former City and State Comptroller Alan Hevesi's sentencing on a felony conviction was postponed today after Judge Lewis Bart Stone sent the case back for assignment to another judge because of a potential conflict of interest between the judge and Hevesi's lawyer. Hevesi pleaded guilty on October 7, 2010. He had resigned as State Comptroller on December 22, 2006, after a prior conviction for an unrelated felony.

Lastly, for information about herding cats, click here.

Budget: Late, Unbalanced

Budget Passed, 125 Days Late

Oil Spill Took 105 Days to Fix

Togs Taxed, Sweet Soda Spared



The ice broke at about 8:30 p.m. last night, the 125th day that the New York State budget was overdue. The state's fiscal year begins on April 1, and FY 2010-2011 was more than one-third over when the State Senate passed a revenue bill that purportedly closed the budget gap.

The resolution of the four-month crisis was reported on the front page of today's Times in an article by Danny Hakim.

The most newsworthy feature of the revenue bill was the reimposition of a 4% state sales tax on clothing and shoes selling for less than $110. The city and state had previously taxed those transactions, but the city repealed its tax in September 2005 and the state followed suit, effective April 2006. City elections are held in odd-numbered years and state elections in even-numbered years. Connect the dots.

Of course, the $330 million predicted to be collected by the low-end sales tax will not close the state's $9.8 billion budget gap. It was passed to show legislative concern over the state's fiscal plight, a condition directly attributable to consistent overspending proposed by the governor and proudly approved by successive legislatures.

The fiscal crisis will come home to roost when the banks stop lending to an increasingly insolvent state government, as they did in New York City in 1974. The state can continue, however, to loot the pension funds for money that they can have no reasonable expectation of being able to repay. Perhaps the state hopes the federal government will bail it out, the way they protected the banks and auto manufacturers in 2008 and 2009.

Perhaps they hope the Feds will do what they did to/for General Motors: wipe out the stockholders, scalp the bondholders and turn control of the company over to the unions. That may turn out to be a good strategy if the company, much smaller now, prospers again. We would not, however, be inclined to go in on the IPO, however it may be priced.

Two substantive bills that were before the legislature failed to pass. They included allowing the sale of wine in supermarkets, and imposing a penny an ounce tax on sugar in soft drinks. Both bills were defeated because the lobbyists in opposition were stronger than those in favor. In our legal system, a party in a lawsuit may prevail because he has a better lawyer than his adversary. That rule applies, a fortiori, when dealing with legislative matters. It is a shame when matters are not decided on the merits, but on the basis of political influence, which may be purchased from people who are practicing their professions in a free society.

New York State lived up to its reputation, first reported six years ago by the Brennan Center for Justice, as having "the most dysfunctional legislature in the United States." There was no mid-session seizure of power by the opposing party, as there was in the Senate in 2009, which created a situation evocative of the Avignon papacy, which Petrarch compared to the Babylonian captivity. The fact that the Democratic Senate majority was razor-thin, 32 being the Constitutional requirement for the adoption of legislation or a budget, meant that the vote of every Democrat was needed on every occasion, and any one disaffected on any issue could prevent the adoption of any other proposal.

To sum up: the State fisc is going to hell in a handbasket, Albany did nothing to impede its descent, relief will have to come from the application of external forces, and much of what happens is due to the fact that too many people in power have limited abilities but unlimited appetites.

QUESTIONS FOR STARQUEST

For the first time in New York Civic's eight-year history, StarQuest will devote an upcoming column to answering questions submitted by our readers. We invite you to pose engaging inquiries that pertain to public issues in New York. Send them via e-mail to starquest@nycivic.org. Please let us know whether you would like us to include your name or initials along with your question or if you would prefer to remain anonymous. Some questions may be answered privately.

Apartment of Mental Health

City Budget: Agreement:

State Issues: Unresolved

Court Decision to Raise

Mental Health Expense

Day 86 without a budget.

86 - to ignore, cancel or get rid of, with prejudice; 86 - atomic number of radon, working our way up to uranium, which is 92. (July 1)

Mayor Bloomberg and the City Council agreed amicably on a budget last night after several days of intensifying negotiations. The Times reported on the process in a story by Javier C. Hernandez on pA25, headed straightforwardly, CITY COUNCIL AND MAYOR REACH ACCORD ON A BUDGET. The first two grafs:

"Faced with a sputtering economy and uncertainty in Albany, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and the City Council agreed Thursday night on a $63 billion budget that would slash at least 2,000 jobs but increase no taxes.

"The deal would mean painful cuts in a variety of city services, including the elimination of some senior centers and day care programs, and less money for education and adult literacy programs. But over all, spending would increase by $3.6 billion, or about 6 per cent, compared with the budget approved a year ago, because of rising pension and health care costs."

Note the contrast between the state and the city when it comes to the budget process. Here are some reasons the city did better:

1. Strong, consistent leadership by the elected executive and his experienced professional staff.

2. A relatively responsible, hierarchical but functioning unicameral legislature.

3. The absence of a $10 billion deficit, due to the mayor's putting money aside during the boom years rather than spending every cent that was available.

4. The willingness of unions to make adjustments in staffing to avoid layoffs of their members and closing of facilities.

5. The absence of diversions such as investigations and indictments in the executive and legislative branches.

6. The relatively lesser strength of lobbyists in influencing city government.

One depressing aspect of the municipal budget is that despite the layoffs, attrition and other reductions, total spending still rose substantially ($3.6 billion) because of mandated increasing costs for pensions and health benefits. These areas must be dealt with if the city and state are to emerge from the chronic budgetary imbalance they have suffered from for years. Some day, the pension system will have to go from defined benefit to defined contribution, as the great majority of pension plans already are.

Almost by coincidence, there is another story in today's Times, just two pages later, that describes a court decision which, if upheld as it is likely to be, will have a considerable financial impact every year on the New York State budget. The decision is reported by A.G. Sulzberger on pA27. The head: US APPEALS COURT LIFTS STAY ON RELOCATIING MENTALLY ILL. The lede:

"A federal appeals court has ruled that New York State must comply with a lower court's order to begin immediately transferring thousands of people with mental illness in New York City out of large, institutional group homes and into their own homes and apartments, where they will continue to receive specialized treatment and services."

The story quotes the executive directors of two advocacy organizations. It closes with a senior citizen adult home resident who said: "I'd be better off in a studio or one-bedroom. Once you get here, you sort of get stuck here." Earlier in the story, a spokesman for Gov. David A. Paterson, said that "the state, wrestling with severe budget deficits, was in the process of determining its next steps." The article does not identify the two judges on the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit who made the decision. They are Pierre N. Leval and Debra Ann Livingston. Judge Leval, a senior judge, is held in particularly high regard. Judge Livingston, an appointee of President George W. Bush, was confirmed in 2007. She was Vice Dean of Columbia Law School from 2005 to 2006.

This case is a classic example of the unfunded mandates which make it impossible for state executives or legislators to balance budgets. It may well be beneficial for many people with mental illness to have their own apartments with visits from case management services, psychiatrists and nurses, as the plan would require. Others may do better in group homes. Much depends on the quality of the group home.

There is no question that this mandate will be expensive to fulfill. Nor is there any question that the state is severely financially stressed, and that it would be extremely difficult to incur additional expenditures. Nor is there any limit on the level of service that the Federal courts would eventually require for individuals who have mental problems.

There are fiscal consequences to every new law and regulation, and some legislatures have rules that these consequences must be calculated and stated. No such rule applies to court decisions, which are often made without regard to how the decrees will be paid for (except for tobacco companies). Nor is it considered what or other services may be adversely affected by additional expense incurred in this area.

We recommend that you read today's Times article in full here. Are humanitarianism and fiscal responsibility inconsistent? How should judgments be made when these objectives are in conflict? Does the fiscal condition of the state have any relevance when the needs or desires of persons with disabilities are considered?

Sticks and Stones

Rogue Senators

Trash Governor

In War of Words.

'Thugs', He Calls

Espada and Diaz.

Day 71 without a budget. There are 71 characters on a standard English keyboard, not counting upper and lower case characters twice.

The situation in Albany changes from hour to hour, as insults are hurled back and forth between several senators and the governor.

Two Daily News articles do justice to the situation: Bill Hammond's PEDRO & SKELOS STAR IN 'CHAOS' 2, in yesterday’s News, reminds us of Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure, except that Hammond is funnier. Reading the column, you should be outraged, but you may also be amused.

The story is followed up in today's News in an article by Glenn Blain and Kenneth Lovett of the News' Albany bureau. Headlined POLS SLING MUD AS STATE TILTS TOWARD CHAOS, the story begins:

"Pro wrestling would kill for the vindictive, no-holds-barred story line unfolding in the state Capitol. Sens. Pedro Espada and Ruben Diaz teamed up against Gov. Paterson yesterday in a budget battle featuring personal jabs as subtle as sledgehammers.

'We cannot let an unelected, lame-duck governor that no one in the state wants to actually decide this [budget] by himself in a piecemeal fashion,' said Espada, miffed over the spending cuts Paterson has tucked into short-term emergency plans."

Then Espada went for the knockout by referring to Paterson's despair over the ongoing attorney general probe of his contact with a domestic violence victim.

"Rev. Diaz and I were the first ones to visit Gov. Paterson in his mansion when he was stretched out on a psychiatric sofa, unable to lift himself to come to work."

Quickly, [Espada] added: "We don’t want to resort to name-calling."

Paterson, likewise, pulled no punches in unleashing his own barrage of insults.

He dismissed the two Bronx Democrats, both of whom threatened to shut down the government over budget disputes, as irresponsible rogues and blackmailers.

"I'm not going to respond to any threats, any thug activity," Paterson said. He didn’t mention the two senators by names, but his targets were unmistakable."

We at New York Civic cannot predict how these angry Democrats will feel tomorrow. The Republicans so far have been no help, seeking only to portray the Democrats as incompetent to manage the senate or adopt a budget. This Republican strategy plays into the hands of Espada and Diaz by making them necessary parties to a budget agreement. As successor to Joe Bruno, who resigned because of legal problems, Skelos should be working with Paterson. However, he resents being excluded whenever he is not needed, and he wants desperately to regain the senate majority the Republicans lost in 2008 after forty-three years in power. He doesn't know what strategy to follow, but he should remember that Newt Gingrich was blamed for the last federal government shutdown, in 1995-96.

The issues are likely to be resolved, but not before the last minute. So far the parties are playing a game of 'chicken', expecting the other to back down or to agree to a face-saving compromise. Returning to the movies after Bill & Ted, we note than in Rebel Without a Cause, one of the competing cars went over the cliff. The same dramatic conclusion ended the story of Thelma and Louise, except that they were in one car.

Actually, a government shutdown for a brief period might not be so bad. It could show us some of what we could get by without. Besides, state employees are not nearly as essential as city police, fire, transit and sanitation workers. It is not in the state workers' interest for the public to find that out.

Cuckoo Coupday

$125 Billion Spent,

What Do You Get?

Another Year Older

And Deeper in Debt

Day 69 without a budget - en francais, soixante-neuf.

The Battle of the Budget continues, with both the Senate and the Assembly acting as if time were on their side. Time does seem to be working to help Governor Paterson, who has included budget reductions ("poison pills" to the spenders) along with the weekly extender to keep the state operating without an approved budget for FY 2010-2011, which began on April 1, 2010, almost ten weeks ago.

The political issue at play is who will be blamed if the government, at least the part of it that does not affect public health and safety, shuts down. The last such near-death experience took place with regard to the federal government from November 14 through November 19, 1995 and from December 16, 1995 to January 6, 1996. The cause was a dispute between President Clinton and House Speaker Newt Gingrich over whether the legal limit on the national debt should be increased.

For the government to be able to pay its bills, the debt limit would have to be raised. Gingrich, the fiscal conservative, refused to do that. As a result, federal offices were closed nationwide and many functions involving the public could not be performed. The public blamed Gingrich and the Republicans for the shutdown. In January 1996, the Republicans relented and raised the debt limit to $5.5 trillion. BTW, today the national debt exceeds $13 trillion.

In the current budget war, Governor Paterson is likely to increase the pressure by including additional budget cuts in the weekly extension legislation. Under this strategy, the Senate and Assembly would either have to swallow the cuts or take responsibility for shutting down the State, which would displease, among others, the employee unions upon whose generosity the legislators feast to the tune of millions of dollars each year, and on whose phone banks the solons rely should anyone have the impertinence to oppose their candidacies for re-election.

Today marks the first anniversary of last summer's inglorious Senate putsch, in which Senator Pedro Espada, Jr., President and CEO of Soundview Health Network, and his sidekick, former Senator Hiram Monserrate, joined with 30 Republican senators to take control of the 62-member body. Monserrate redefected to the Democrats a week later, but Espada hung on for a full month, returning only when promised the Majority Leadership that he desired. One year after his successful insurrection, Senator Espada said today that he might not vote for another extender because he wanted the budget agreed to this week. The governor's cuts to the State's health budget also have an adverse effect on the Senator's business, Soundview. If Espada does not provide the 32nd Democratic vote, the state will again be on the brink of a shutdown.

Espada's co-conspirator, Monserrate, gained for his return to the fold the chair of the Committee on Consumer Affairs, to which his colleagues had been reluctant to elect him while he was awaiting trial for slashing his girlfriend. He was subsequently convicted of a lesser charge, expelled from the Senate, and defeated 3-1 for re-election to his old seat. Espada is currently the target of a lawsuit by the State Attorney General and the subject of a Federal investigation, but so far neither proceeding has resulted in a judgment.

The Senate in 2010 is close to anarchy. Since the 30 Republicans will support nothing, even if they had previously promised to, all 32 Democratic votes are needed to pass anything. For example, the Gender Expression Non-Discrimination Act (GENDA), which died in the Judiciary Committee. Every Democrat supported it except Senator Rev. Ruben Diaz, Sr., father of the Bronx Borough President, Ruben Diaz, Jr. No Republican supported it, even though two were said to have previously indicated that they would. Rev. Diaz is acting out of his religious convictions; he has always opposed legislation to help gays. Several of the Republicans are acting out of their political convictions, that it is better to show that the Democrats are unable to run the Senate than it is to help bisexual and transgender(ed?) New Yorkers.

It is difficult to determine from the course of events over the past two years whether the Democrats or Republicans are more qualified to lead the State Senate. Since we do not endorse or recommend candidates for public choices, we would not normally make choices between individuals or parties. This year we feel understanding for our readers who will have to make those choices on Primary Day, September 14 in New York State, and Election Day, seven weeks later on November 2. We hope that candidates for state office, incumbents and challengers alike, commit to a program of legislative reform, transparency, strong ethics codes and honest redistricting by an impartial commission. The next weeks will give us an idea of how many will promise to support specific legislation in this area.

Candidate Andrew Cuomo has asked all Democratic candidates to subscribe to this program. We would ask Republican and other party candidates for public office in New York State to make similar commitments. We do not view reform as a partisan issue. Our observation is that partisanship is often an impediment to reform because it requires legislators to be subservient to party leaders, rather than rely on their independent judgment on the issues. Party leaders make decisions on what they believe is best for their party rather than for the State of New York or the general public.

The Sons Also Set

Voters Shun Incumbents,

Two Sons Are Defeated.

Budget Is 44 Days Late

By Henry J. Stern
May 14, 2010

Widespread public dissatisfaction with government has recently been reflected with the defeat of two long-term legislators, the retirement of a score of members of Congress, and unexpectedly narrow margins for some incumbents over underfunded and relatively unknown challengers. This appears to be a national trend.

Senator Robert F. Bennett of Utah had held his seat for three terms since he was first elected in 1992. His father, Wallace F.Bennett, had been a senator from Utah for four terms (1951-75) and a leader in the Mormon Church. Robert was defeated at a Republican state convention May 8, and under state law, cannot compete in the Utah primary. Two new candidates, Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater, each received nearly 40 per cent of the delegates' votes and will face off on June 22 for the Republican nomination. Utah last elected a Democrat to the Senate 40 years ago; it is a very red state. Bennett came in third despite a nominating speech by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the best known Mormon in American politics and an anticipated contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012.

Congressman Alan Mollohan of West Virginia, who lost in a Democratic primary on May 11, had served for 14 consecutive terms (28 years). He was first elected in 1982 on the retirement of his father. Like Bennett, Mollohan was a second generation legislator. His father, Robert, also served 14 terms, from 1953 to 1983, missing only one term due to the Eisenhower landslide over Stevenson in 1956. The Mollohans represented the northern part of the state, the cities of Wheeling and Morgantown and the rust belt, for a total of 56 years. Alan Mollohan is the 24th richest Congressman, reporting assets of between $7.1 to $29.3 million. In recent years, he has been involved in controversies over earmarks for groups he organized, his own financial disclosure and other ethical issues.

In 2009, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington named him as "one of the fifteen most corrupt members of Congress, claiming that he had steered hundreds of millions of dollars to family, friends, former employees, and corporation in exchange for contributions to his campaign and political action committees.”"

Among the Senators who are retiring are Evan Bayh of Indiana, Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Byron Dorgan of Indiana. Dodd received a mortgage from Countrywide Savings and Loan on very favorable terms. He was one of the Friends of Angelo, a reference to Angelo R. Mozilo, CEO of Countrywide, who sold his enterprise up the creek to the Bank of America in 2008 for $4 billion in stock.

Bayh and Dorgan were well regarded senators, particularly Bayh, who was touted as a potential candidate for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016, or possibly in 2012 if President Obama does badly enough. His father, Birch Evan Bayh, Jr., (sic) was a Senator from Indiana for three terms (1963 to 1981). Birch Bayh competed in the presidential primaries in 1976, coming in third in Iowa and third in New Hampshire before withdrawing. That was the year Jimmy Carter was nominated and elected.

Some New York State legislators are also departing voluntarily. They include Assemblywoman Ann Margaret Carrozza (who represents a Queens County district but has a house in Great Neck in Nassau) Michael Benjamin of the Bronx, Joan Christiensen of Syracuse, and Susan John of Rochester. Senator Dale Volker of Buffalo (and former chairman of the Finance Committee), and Senator Thomas Morahan of Rockland County are retiring as well.

Morahan is the state senator whose election Speaker Sheldon Silver was so eager to prevent in 1999 that he pressured the Assembly into repealing the commuter tax, under which people who worked in New York City but lived elsewhere were taxed 45/100 of one per cent of their income to help compensate the city for the services they received (e.g. police and fire) while they were here. That tax had been very helpful in balancing the city's budget. Silver's decision was gleefully agreed to by the Republicans, led by Governor Pataki and Senate leader Joseph Bruno. The enormous error in judgment by the obedient Assembly Democrats has already cost the City of New York about four billion dollars, and the cumulative deficiency rises each year.

The departures from the state legislator do not, however, affect the major players, and if there are to be any changes in the upper ranks at the Capitol, they will have to be the result of citizen action. Although there is enormous public dissatisfaction with the legislature, the route to changing its members is complex and arduous. Nor is there any assurance that new members, once elected, will not crawl into bed with the power structure. That has happened before; sometimes it takes years, other times the transformation takes place within weeks as rookies conclude that the best course for them is to "work from within" to change the system.

Although the Assembly is heavily Democratic, there is considerable doubt as to who will control the New York Senate next year. The Republicans, now down by 32-30, must win two more seats to over-ride Lieutenant Governor Ravitch's tie-breaking vote and win control of what used to be described as the upper chamber. But if Democrats keep defecting to the Republicans to gain larger lulus and higher offices, as Pedro Espada and Hiram Monserrate did in 2009, no one-vote majority is safe. Such a slim majority also requires strict party discipline: a unanimous vote by the majority members is required to pass any legislation, since 32 votes are needed and the minority has generally been unified in its opposition.

The New York State budget is now 44 days late, and the squabbling houses and governor do not appear to be close to agreement as of Friday afternoon. We wrote when the budget was 40 days late, and asked readers to contribute other uses of the number 40.

MORE ON FORTY

In response to our last article (40 - XL - Forty - Two Score) several readers responded to our invitation and suggested other famous forties:

Eric (Tillicum) Alexson of Santa Barbara, CA, a park official, reminds us that there are 40 days between Easter Sunday and Ascension Thursday. According to the Gospel authors Matthew, Mark, and Luke, Jesus also spent 40 days in the wilderness, where He was tempted by the devil. The jazz pianist Dave Brubeck titled one of his compositions "40 Days."

Joseph (Sauce) Appelbaum, a horse trader, wrote to say that the "40/40 club" is both a rare statistical achievement in baseball (forty home runs, forty stolen bases) and a club owned by the Brooklyn rapper Jay-Z.

Robert S. Cook, Jr., an attorney, tells us that the phrase "40 & 8" refers to the number of soldiers or horses that could fit inside a World War I French boxcar. The cars had "40/8" stenciled on their sides. In French the phrase would be "Quarante homes et huit cheveux."

Sheldon Glashow, Ph.D., informs us that "forty forties", or "sorok sorokov" is an old nickname for Moscow. It refers to a time, prior to the 1917 revolution, when the city boasted 1,600 churches, primarily Russian Orthodox. BTW, Dr. Glashow is a Nobel laureate in physics. He discovered the quark.

Kenan Stern, M.D., noted that Lent, the season of penitence that begins on Ash Wednesday and ends on Easter holiday, is 40 days long.

We add that 40 is a unit of old English linear measure. There are 40 rods (each is 5 l/2 yards) to one furlong (220 yards, or one-eighth of a mile). Horse races are sometimes measured in furlongs.

The identifying material about our correspondents was prepared by New York Civic alone. They are modest, but we are proud that they are among our readers.

NOTE: If you would like to read True News, an illustrated broadsheet written by Gary Tilzer, a Brooklyn muckraker, you can link to it here.

Enjoy the weekend.

40 - Forty - XL - Two Score

State Budget

40 Days Late

And $9B Short

By Henry J. Stern
May 10, 2010

The State of New York has now been without a budget for forty days. We have as yet seen no indication as to when a budget will be adopted by the state senate and the assembly that will be approved by the governor.

The continuing delay presents a serious problem to municipalities, counties and school districts now preparing their own budgets, which are dependent on state aid, the amount of which will not be determined until the state adopts its own budget.

Since there is nothing more we can do to speed the process, we decided to mark the occasion of the 40th day of legislative lateness by collecting some references to the number forty in history, literature and popular culture. We are certain that there are many others. You are invited to send us any that you know of which you believe deserve wider circulation. We thank Google and Wikipedia for a few of those listed below, but most come from our own life experience.

Forty days and forty nights -- the length of the deluge. Described in Genesis 7:12 "And the rain was upon the earth forty days and forty nights."

Forty years -- the time the Hebrews spent in the wilderness after fleeing from Egypt across the Red Sea. Described in Exodus 16:35: "The Israelites ate manna for forty years, until they came to a habitable land; they ate manna until they came to the border of the land of Canaan."

Forty acres and a mule -- General William T. Sherman's Special Field Orders No. 15, January 16, 1865, "So that each family shall have a plot of not more than 40 acres of tillable ground…" Forty acres is one sixteenth of a square mile, which consists of 640 acres. A quarter section is 160 acres. The mules were not mentioned in the orders, but were given out to settlers because the Military Division of the Mississippi (of the Grand Army of the Republic) owned some animals which were no longer needed to carry supplies.

Forty (quarante) -- the number of days of isolation formerly required to prove the absence of illness. The word "quarantine" was derived from this time period.

Forty winks -- a brief nap.

Forty whacks -- what Lizzie Borden gave her mother with an axe in New Bedford, MA in 1892. Forty-one -- what she then gave her father. She was acquitted by a jury, which may have taken pity on her as an orphan. The axe was never found.

"Life Begins at 40" -- a self-help book by Walter Pitkin (1932), written to lift the spirits of middle-aged people. A widely used phrase in popular culture, and the title of a television series from Hong Kong. The age of 40 is now a threshold for lawsuits alleging age discrimination, usually in employment.

The 40-hour week was once an objective of organized labor, whose members were once required to work Saturdays. It is now considered burdensome by employees who have become accustomed to a 35-hour week, e.g. 9 to 5, with an hour off for lunch.

Minus 40 -- The temperature at which the Fahrenheit scale coincides with the Celsius (centigrade) scale. It is extremely cold.

Ali Baba and the 40 Thieves -- The title character of this medieval Arabic story outwits a gang of thieves, thereby acquiring their treasure. A French scholar, Antoine Galland, included the tale in his translation of "One Thousand and One Nights."

Forty Thieves -- A 19th century New York street gang. They lived in the infamous Sixth Ward and operated out of the back room of a Centre Street grocery store. The phrase has also been used as a reference to the old Board of Aldermen, the predecessor legislative body to the City Council, which today has 51 members

Tomorrow, May 11, the state budget will be 41 days late. The main association we have with the prime number 41 is that it was the margin by which Ed Koch defeated Carmine DeSapio in a race for Democratic district leader in Greenwich Village in 1963. The outcome was eventually invalidated by the courts on the ground that the number of unintentional irregularities exceeded the margin between the candidates. A re-run was ordered for primary day in 1964, which Koch won by 164 votes.

They Can't Work It Out

Three Men In a Room

Nowhere to Be Seen,

Budget 37 Days Late

By Henry J. Stern
May 7, 2010

Today, Friday, May 7, is the 37th day the State of New York has been without a budget. The state's fiscal year begins April 2, and a tenth of it has now passed, with the state relying on emergency extensions to avoid a shutdown.

There is still no sign that a resolution of the budget impasse between the governor, the senate and the assembly is imminent, so it is difficult to predict how long it will be before a budget is agreed upon.

The delay causes particular hardship to municipalities and local school boards, which normally adopt their own budgets in May or June and are dependent on state aid, which in many cases is a return of the taxes paid to the state by people in those localities.

This year, because of the Great Recession (lower revenues and steadily increasing labor, and health and pension costs) the budget gap is higher than ever. The state gap is now between nine and ten billion dollars, and New York State's finances are comparable to those of Greece, or California. The State Senate has shown itself more amenable to budget reductions than the Assembly, which is more responsive to public employee unions. However, neither house is anywhere near a balanced budget, and it is likely that there will be a resort to backdoor borrowing, illegal and irresponsible as that may be.

The fact is that there is a structural gap in both city and state budgets. In this case, structural means chronic. In good economic times, government may come close to breaking even. But the general tendency in periods of prosperity is to increase expenditures, which make government particularly vulnerable when times turn bad. There is always more pressure on government to spend than to save, and politicians, constantly eager to please constituencies, support programs that the state cannot afford to fund.

The press will cover the budget machinations as deadlines approach and are passed without action. This year the trichotomy--a lame-duck governor and two houses with their own agendas--is unlikely to lead to harmonious resolution of differences. It may be, however, that when they tire of controversy and decide they would look better by reaching agreement, they will come to terms with each other.

Remarkably, as we are writing this, a bulletin has appeared on the computer monitor that the Marist Poll has found that New Yorkers are unhappy about the late budget. 47% of poll respondents said that the lateness of the budget worried them "a great deal." An additional 25% said it mattered "a good amount." When 72% of the public is concerned about the lateness of the budget, it could become a potent issue in the upcoming campaign.

The poll contains bad news for the Governor: only 31% of respondents claimed to be happy with his leadership on budgetary issues. Admittedly, this would be significantly worse news if he were still a candidate for office. He was wise to retire.

Link to the full results of the Marist poll here.

Other articles on the budget appear today on the illustrious illustrated blog, True News.

DIGRESSION: Marist is a college in Poughkeepsie, a city on the Hudson River about 80 miles north of New York, and county seat of Dutchess. Marist is one of four colleges in the region that poll on public issues, the others being Siena College in Loudonville, a suburb north of Albany, Quinniapac College, located in Hamden, CT, which is just north of New Haven, and Canisius College in Buffalo. Quinniapac is named for a local Indian tribe which was part of the Algonquin family.

The other three are Catholic colleges, named respectively for Mary, the mother of Christ; St. Bernardino Siena, an Italian monk from the town of Siena, which itself was named for Senius, the son of Remus, who was the twin brother of Romulus (who killed Remus, much as Cain slew Abel); and St. Peter Canisius, a 16th century Jesuit.

The polling done by these colleges is non-sectarian and well regarded as a public service.

On Tuesday, May 4, Mayor Koch visited Albany and spoke with legislative leaders in both houses on behalf of redistricting reform through the selection of a nonpartisan commission to redistrict the state. Koch heads New York Uprising, a citizens group formed this year to fight gerrymandering, secure a balanced budget and tighten ethics rules in Albany. The organization intends to ask candidates for the legislature to sign pledges to support these reforms, and to publicize the names of both signers and nonsigners.

Enjoy the weekend.